|１ Evaluation of Global Warming Measures in Asia Using the AIM Model|
Head, Integrated Assessment Modeling
Section Social and Environmental Systems
Division National Institute for Environmental Studies
To solve the global warming issue, a long-term plan (more than 100 years from now) needs to be formulated. Reducing greenhouse gases has been the central component of the argument. However, in the area where the influence of warming is already seen, adaptation measures against warming need to be examined and implemented. Moreover, in order to implement measures to reduce major greenhouse gases and the effective adaptation measure, developing countries need to cooperate. The Asia-Pacific region, where more than half the world’s population lives, grasps the key to solving the global warming issue. In order to analyze the measures against warming, the National Institute for Environmental Studies is developing the Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling (common-name AIM model) in collaboration with the research organizations in China, India, South Korea, and Thailandand at Kyoto University.１）
The following are examples where the AIM model was applied to Japan, China, and India.
1.The evaluation of global warming countermeasure technology in Japan
We investigated and estimated the CO2 emissions of technology that could be introduced by 2012 if approx. 550 energy-saving and new energy technologies were targeted and implemented for three years. (Fig.1)In addition, the "technical fixed case" in the figure assumes that new technology is not introduced. Thus, since the energy service demand increases, CO2 emissions also increase. When the "technical fixed case" was compared with the "carbon tax with subsidy case" to maintain the same life level, the former indicates that the CO2 emissions in 2010 will increase by about 13.7%, while the latter shows that it will decrease by about 2.3% by advancing new technologies and energy-saving technologies.
|Fig.1 CO2 emissions trajectories by|
2.The evaluation of global warming countermeasure technology in China
Prediction of the growth in energy consumption, CO2, and emissions of air pollutants by 2030 was performed for each section of industry, commerce, transportation, rural homes, and urban homes. The estimation of the possible reduction of CO2 for every section in 2030 is shown in Fig. 2. The possible quantity of reduction is compared with a technical fixed case. The possible quantity of reduction in power generation, steel, and the cement section is high.
|Fig.2 Emission reduction potentials by sectors|
3.The evaluation of global warming countermeasure technology in India
The energy use in India is increasing rapidly with industrialization, agricultural modernization, and the rise in income. The Indian GDP showed an average of 6.5% of growth between 1990 and 2000. Fig. 3 indicates a marginal reduction cost curve in the steel section in 2020. The steel section of India was growing at an annual rate of 7% in the 1990s, and produced 27,100,000t of iron in 2000. From the prospect of infrastructure investment by the government and the increase in residential construction, it is estimated that production will become 52,500,000t by 2010, 81 million t by 2020 and 103 million by 2030. Since the present steel production process of India consumes about 1.5 times as much energy as that of the most advanced technology in the world, a drastic reduction of CO2 by introduction of energy-saving technologies can be expected.
|Fig.3 MAC curve? (Steel Sector) in 2020|
By exchanging inefficient machines for energy-saving ones, energy consumption and CO2 emissions are expected to decrease. With respect to advanced technology which is expensive, economical efficiency will be realized in the long run due to the energy-saving effect and the environment will benefit. However, if one takes only short-term profits into consideration, the high hurdle of investment is real.
１）Kainuma et al. (eds): Climate Policy Assessment - Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling -,Springer, 2003 （http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/）